The war has been lost.
Try as we might to console ourselves that there is still time—and I
admit there is still time, albeit
shrinking daily—the truth of the matter is that the war is lost in all but name
only. The attempts by The Mittani to
spin the war as a success-in-the-making, that the Fabian Strategy is the most
successful option available, and that given time the “Goonhammer” will win is,
at this point, nothing but attempts to save face before a declining population. Before I begin with this TL;DR piece, I’ll
provide my statistics for claiming “declining population”, using the current
seven-day population statistics for the remaining six members of the Imperium
on 28 May 2016, and then again on 01 June 2016, and provide an actual adjustment
after each to show statistics between those two dates:
28 May
Goonswarm Federation: -250 (15,656)
The Bastion: -317 (1,748)
Razor Alliance: -11 (1,400)
Tactical Narcotics Team: -25 (1,149)
Get Off My Lawn: -131 (1,137)
Executive Outcomes: -10 (964)
01 June
Goonswarm Federation: -260 (15,546) [Net Movement:
-110]
The Bastion: -348 (1,645) [Net Movement: -103]
Razor Alliance: 0 (1,404) [Net Movement: +4]
Tactical Narcotics Team: -24 (1,141) [Net Movement:
+1]
Get Off My Lawn: -236 (1,022) [Net Movement: -115]
Executive Outcomes: -2 (965) [Net Movement: +1]
As shown, the populations of these alliances have been declining (exceptions being miniscule gains for RAZOR, TNT, and EXE); this is not speculation, this is fact that can be seen when using an unbiased third-party site (in this case, evewho.com). Even looking at Dotlan and the metrics used there, it’s easy to see the constantly declining numbers available for all six alliances. So while the Imperium members might harp on about “declining numbers” in enemy groups like Pandemic Horde, Horde has been gaining members (+270 over the past seven days for a member count of 9,304) while no alliance in the Imperium has seen similar numbers. One can make the argument that general activity per capita is higher than Horde, but numbers right now do not lie.
Yes, this is a basic explanation, but I like keeping things basic. If you want a more intimate explanation, I am not your man for that (right now).
Alright, the Disclaimer.
At the moment, I am a member of Tactical Narcotics Team and have been for a few months, now. I have been a loyal member of the alliance, and have tried to remain positive and upbeat over this war, even writing several pieces for our alliance forums in which I explained the similarities between the current war and battles/wars of the past on Earth.
I say “at the moment” because I have already become disenfranchised with the alliance, and at this point am still in it because I do like many of the people in it. I firmly believe, however, that TNT as an entity has lost its identity because of the close relationship with Goonswarm. Coalitions are fine, but you’d expect that there would be attempts to maintain individualism and identity while working towards a common goal. TNT is regarded as “Goonswarm Lite”, and to quote one director of Goonswarm Federation on Mumble:
“FCON and SMA leaving are expected. If TNT leaves, then I’ll be worried because we are so fucking similar.”
When The Mittani talked about folding the alliances of the Imperium into Goonswarm to force the best chance of fighting in FozzieSov, TNT was on the fence. While CEOs in the alliance were hesitant to do so, there were attempts by Goonswarm directors to point out this “special relationship” between the two alliances, a la the “special relationship” between the United States and Great Britain. This didn’t fully sway the CEOs, thankfully, and I think that was part of the reason the idea fell behind. The Mittani and his directors couldn’t even convince “Goonswarm Lite” to go with his plan, so how could they possibly convince the rest of the Imperium to do so without significant failcascades?
But while I am annoyed by this, I can’t overlook the fact that I am a loyal member of the alliance, even with these misgivings. I wouldn’t betray them, I wouldn’t spy on them. I’ve never done it, and I have wanted to for previous groups. Normally I just leave at that point. TNT has been fun, and I want this to be more of a wake-up call piece than a “fuck you bitches” piece. However, this is a point in the war where morale is low for the Imperium, and being objective and bringing facts to the table that contradict the narrative is routinely seen as treason. As such, having already been banned from Goonswarm Mumble and the site because I am taking things more neutral than they want, I hold no doubts that this may be the final nail in the coffin and I might see myself removed because of pressure.
The
Fabian Strategy
When the war began, The Mittani called on the Imperium
to take up the “Fabian Strategy” in order to win the war. The Fabian Strategy revolves around denying
decisive large-scale engagements in favor of small skirmishes at best, but
normally it involves rapid harrying of logistics, stragglers, and forces that can
be encircled, cut off, and removed. This
strategy works best against an invading force, where their logistics train is
strewn out, reinforcements can’t necessarily be deployed rapidly, and you have
a solid “GTFO” strategy and plan. More
commonly, this is seen today as “guerilla tactics”, and we saw in Afghanistan
and Iraq that this can be highly
effective.
The Fabian Strategy assumes that the force employing it has time on their side. Alternatively, it is employed if no other viable strategy presents itself. Once again, the Muj in Afghanistan used it, because they don’t have a viable alternative, and because Western memories tend to be very short: we know about 9/11, but after fifteen years of war we simply stopped caring, and became tired of the mire we were in.
The Fabian Strategy assumes that the force employing it has time on their side. Alternatively, it is employed if no other viable strategy presents itself. Once again, the Muj in Afghanistan used it, because they don’t have a viable alternative, and because Western memories tend to be very short: we know about 9/11, but after fifteen years of war we simply stopped caring, and became tired of the mire we were in.
However, the main problem is that we did not cut off
the MBC’s logistics. Their jump
freighters continue to move unhindered and unmolested, bringing in the
necessary ships for doctrines, modules, and other sundry necessities. As such, while the Imperium likes to say
eventually our enemies will get bored and tired of no SRP, PL, TEST, and other
larger conglomerates can easily replace what has been lost, even
supercapitals. That is part of the
reason they aren’t afraid to engage in supercapital fights, and The Mittani
knows it: we can no longer easily replace lost supercapitals; replacing basic
capitals is a chore as-is. We have no
industry capability anymore. We risk
scams by buying from outside sources.
Meanwhile, I Want ISK is funding the war effort, and easily replaced the
supercapitals destroyed by SNUFF in the infamous “backstab” not too long
ago. So while the Imperium may have the
largest supercapital fleet available (up for debate), it is not easily
replaced, which makes it more dangerous to utilize. Our assets are locked for the most part; our
enemies’ are not.
But our own logistics are harried. The recent move of pretty much every swinging dick into Saranen has pretty much shut off our ability to bring in jump freighters. Cynos will be removed post haste, as we have seen over the past few days. It is safer to light the cyno on another station in-system and warp to our home base at 0 than to jump directly to a cyno on said station.
But our own logistics are harried. The recent move of pretty much every swinging dick into Saranen has pretty much shut off our ability to bring in jump freighters. Cynos will be removed post haste, as we have seen over the past few days. It is safer to light the cyno on another station in-system and warp to our home base at 0 than to jump directly to a cyno on said station.
There are also two key components to the Fabian
Strategy that are not being utilized, thus actually making it the worst alternative presented to, and by,
The Mittani. The first is that the force
utilizing the strategy is not centralized, and that instead of a large force,
you have multiple smaller forces camping out.
This is to prevent that decisive,
large-scale battle that the strategy seeks to avoid from happening. While low-sec might be unconquerable, by consolidating
the forces into Saranen—and into one station when three are available, at that!—it
serves to weaken the overall objectives stated by The Mittani. Having hundreds, if not thousands, of players
in one system, it actually eases up the enemy’s intelligence services: you can
now view that one system as your center of focus, and send a very small amount
of scouts out to the systems important to the Imperium: Daras (the system
important to Imperium Black Ops), Aunenen (the mid-point between Jita and
Saranen for jump bridges), and Tamo (the midpoint between Aunenen and Saranen
for other capitals). The stated goal of
this consolidation was to make fleets easier to manage, but what it does is
allow the enemy to know when a fleet undocks.
And considering The Mittani and directors of Imperium alliances like to
harp on about the MBC not having unified communications, wouldn’t it be smarter
to take full advantage of that, and spread the forces out in order to minimize
the chance PL, TEST, and TISHU might see the
same damn fleet undocking? If the
communication lines for the enemy are truly disgruntled (read: fucked), then it
makes sense to force greater hardships on it, not make it so one TISHU, one
TEST, and one PL scout can each be in the same system and allow for all three
to form up. The purpose of this strategy
is to introduce Mr. Murphy far more readily to the enemy, while also increasing
the chance he visits himself upon you as well (Murphy’s Law: Anything that can
go wrong, will go wrong, and at the worst possible time). Compounding problems on the enemy is crucial
to the power of the Fabian Strategy, but The Mittani ignores this, because of
the following component he ignores.
The Fabian Strategy makes use of small-unit commanders. Normally, a military would entrust a captain
or lieutenant with a company or platoon, but the big decisions would be left up
to the major or lieutenant colonel in charge of the battalion, at the
lowest. While the United States military
offers the ability for those lieutenants to make command decisions based on a
changing tactical situation, overall it’s frowned upon to change entire
sections of a plan. The Fabian Strategy
removes such limitations, oftentimes letting the junior officers or senior
noncommissioned officers make decisions not normally at their paygrade. You actually encourage those people to think, make informed judgments, and run
things, which can put a lot of pressure on them, but it helps to shape
them. The idea is to turn your forces
into makeshift SEALs, Special Air Services, Force Recon, Delta, etc. They become specialized small-gang fighters,
looking to make the enemy bleed in the most efficient way possible.
Unfortunately, the Imperium has kept things to the “coalition-level
FCs”. Sure, there are individual
alliance-based FCs, but if you don’t have the FC tag attached to your name you
actually miss out on many of the perks associated with FCing. You don’t get to do pings unless someone
higher-up is willing to do so. In many
instances, your fleet will not be
eligible for SRP, and there have been several FCs who have said their
fleets have been denied SRP because they aren’t “valid”, despite the fleet
running the literal fits and compositions found on Goonfleet. So the enemy knows DBRB, Asher Elias, Amyclas
Amatin and the like are FCs, and to headshot them. There’s little chance of that happening when
other people who have proven leadership traits taking fleets out, because it
messes, once again, with the enemy’s ability to gather intelligence!
The more pressing matter is that the Fabian Strategy
is pretty much a solid “win” card.
Barring the entire coalition falling apart overnight, eventually the MBC
will grow bored, either because of no more fights, or just general apathy. At that point, The Mittani can claim victory,
as he “knew” it would happen. In
essence, there is no way to lose with
the Fabian Strategy.
What it boils down to is leaders who have no other options, or who can’t actually strategize and plan, turn to this tactic to save face. Nothing more. It offers no actual chance for lower-level commanders and leaders to take initiative and do their own thing. It is rather like the Soviet doctrines, in which everything was decided by the military leaders in Moscow, and it was expected there would be no deviation at the sub-unit level. That is that antithesis to the Fabian strategy.
Saranen “Standing Fleet”
What it boils down to is leaders who have no other options, or who can’t actually strategize and plan, turn to this tactic to save face. Nothing more. It offers no actual chance for lower-level commanders and leaders to take initiative and do their own thing. It is rather like the Soviet doctrines, in which everything was decided by the military leaders in Moscow, and it was expected there would be no deviation at the sub-unit level. That is that antithesis to the Fabian strategy.
Saranen “Standing Fleet”
24 April 2016: “Firstly, the Saranen Standing fleet which is keeping Saranen
clean. The enemy that used to be sitting on the undock having fun is no longer
having fun, either because the Standing Fleet docks up and advises nobody else
to undock, denying content until hostile forces leave, or increasingly because
the Standing Fleet kills the hostiles and fewer of them return. The enemy does
not deserve content, they deserve misery, and right now Saranen is a rather
discouraging place for them to be.”
15 May 2016: “The standing fleet
doesn't work because the enemy is always ready to drop overwhelming force, and
because Caracals can't take on carriers. If they're going to camp Saranen, let
them camp a station where nothing is happening. Use you own insta-undocks and be
smart when undocking. We will deal with their campers by boring them to death
and then flash forming occasionally.”
In less than a month, the concept of
the “standing fleet” went the way of the dodo.
This concept is routinely used in high sec war decs, where overwhelming
force isn’t expected. One alliance can
keep people outside the home station, going suspect or other shenanigans while
people do real life stuff. Once hostiles
show up, everyone prepares to fight.
This is effective because high sec prevents neutrals from opening fire
unless one side goes suspect. The real
strength is that neutral logistics will go suspect, allowing free fire on
them. Mittani tried to take a high sec tactic
and turn it into something in low sec.
It does not work.
The reason for this is simple: the Imperium has preferred staying with cheap fits and doctrines, limiting the power of the fleet itself. Since it’s so easy to prepare for, and you know exactly where they are, you can camp it all day. The standing fleet’s purpose was to either pop enemies, or deny them content. It was easily countered, and people only joined to whore PAP links. A fleet of 90 would only have about 45 undocked, if they were that lucky.
The reason for this is simple: the Imperium has preferred staying with cheap fits and doctrines, limiting the power of the fleet itself. Since it’s so easy to prepare for, and you know exactly where they are, you can camp it all day. The standing fleet’s purpose was to either pop enemies, or deny them content. It was easily countered, and people only joined to whore PAP links. A fleet of 90 would only have about 45 undocked, if they were that lucky.
In short, Mittani expected
overwhelming numbers on his side.
However, as he’s constantly said the entirety of EVE is arrayed against
us. While he flaunts a “lack of
communication” amongst our enemies, he ignores the fact that you don’t need
impressive communication lines in order to stay outside a station and blap
anything from the Imperium that undocks.
It was folly to think we’d have the numbers to maintain a
round-the-clock standing fleet and maintain numerical superiority, when we
simply do not have it.
Once Allies, Now Falling By The Wayside
When SMA and FCON broke ties with the
Imperium, I was one of the few saying they should not maintain blue
status. The truth is while this war has
been on the minds of many for years, the actions of SMA were the catalyst that
caused everything to begin. As such, it
seemed only fair that they should have a part in the defense. The truth is, SMA was never prepared for
this, and hubris on the part of their leadership, and a general belief that the
Imperium as a whole would save them, led to their eventual destruction. It was difficult—nigh on impossible—to fully
fight this war on one front, let alone multiple. As such, bailing means that they had nothing
to gain, and their rapidly declining memberbase showed it.
FCON has engaged the Imperium.
The Bastion no longer sees itself as part of the Imperium.
Only TNT, EXE., and RAZOR remain at this point. And to be frank, given talks lately that I have been privy to, at least two of those alliances are talking about evac’ing the war zone. Maybe not cutting ties, but moving on to “rebuild”.
The Bastion no longer sees itself as part of the Imperium.
Only TNT, EXE., and RAZOR remain at this point. And to be frank, given talks lately that I have been privy to, at least two of those alliances are talking about evac’ing the war zone. Maybe not cutting ties, but moving on to “rebuild”.
So, Is The War Lost?
Right now, the war is lost for the
Imperium in everything but name only. I
want to make that clear: there is a
chance to pull victory out of this, but it would require a complete
restructuring of leadership, and an openness to new tactics and
strategies. It would require humility,
which The Mittani lacks. In fact, I
would argue the entire Goonswarm Federation leadership lacks it. They simply believe that what they are doing
now is the only right way to achieve success.
The Mittani’s many claims have never
been validated by evidence he claims to have.
In fact, each and every time he’s asked for evidence, it’s never
provided. He’s always said, “we’ve seen”,
but the average member hasn’t seen these cracks forming in the MBC. The average member hasn’t seen Pandemic Horde
being decimated and farmed by other MBC groups.
The average member can only see massaged numbers claiming proof of Horde
inactivity, and they have to take the promises of this war being “won” by the
Goonswarm leadership as gospel. In fact,
on the Fireside Chats, he readily admitted he doesn’t have a “ready list”. Okay, The Mittani might not have a list right
now, but why hasn’t be provided one since?
Why don’t we have video of all these amazing things happening to help us
win the war?
It took less than two months to make Goonswarm Federation and the rest of the Imperium a non-sov-holding entity. This isn’t the first time anyone in the Imperium has lost their sov, but it is the first time it’s happened since the new sov changes came to pass. In time, yes the MBC will lose interest in the war, and they will go to do their own things. At that time, the Imperium may rise again and reclaim sov. But for the foreseeable future, without a severe change in tactics, strategies, and in general a change in thinking, the Imperium will likely continue to be camped into Saranen station, until such time as it falls apart.
It took less than two months to make Goonswarm Federation and the rest of the Imperium a non-sov-holding entity. This isn’t the first time anyone in the Imperium has lost their sov, but it is the first time it’s happened since the new sov changes came to pass. In time, yes the MBC will lose interest in the war, and they will go to do their own things. At that time, the Imperium may rise again and reclaim sov. But for the foreseeable future, without a severe change in tactics, strategies, and in general a change in thinking, the Imperium will likely continue to be camped into Saranen station, until such time as it falls apart.
